Despite optimistic reports from Pew Internet and Nielsen Online, which cite a rise in Web video traffic since the start of the writers' strike, there is little reason to hope for long-term, positive affects on the Web video industry.
According to Pew Internet:
- 48 percent of U.S. Internet users visited a video site in
2007, up from 33 percent in 2006
- 15 percent of U.S. Internet users watched or posted a
video on a typical day
While Nielsen attributes online video's recent success to the writers'
strike and the temporary demise of television as we've known it, this surge in traffic is likely just for now, not forever.
Five Reasons the Writers' Strike Will Not Revamp Online Video
1. The writers will be back! And when they return, they will
bring with them a strong fanbase of TV addicts who are in dire need of
a fix. Online video is merely a fair-weather friend in this scenario,
and when tee-vee comes back home, Web video will resume its
supplemental role as something to do during commercials.
2. The outcome of the strike will change online video. Once terms
are negotiated, this could perhaps change what methods are used to
generate revenue on online TV, perhaps paving the way for more lengthy
commercials or (gasp) pay-per services. Or, if things go
poorly at the negotiation table, some content may not even remain
available online.
3. TV still has more to offer in the way of professional content.
While we do have a deep level of respect for those homegrown, poor
quality Webvids of frat guys mixing Pop Rocks with Coke, or of cats
burping the ABCs, this does eventually get tiresome (right?). Besides,
quick video clips don't fill our content void. We like a good series! Wait... What's that you say? There are series online? Well, that takes us to point four.
4. TV is still the preferred medium. Recall Quarterlife, which was first launched on MySpaceTV,
where it achieved much initial success. It has since been noticed and
acquired by *guess who* NBC and is now a television series. On real TV.
Where it matters.
5. Online video is still working out a business model. Online
video (just like everything else online in the era of Web
Two-Dot-OhMyGod...) is moving forward on an unchartered path, figuring
it out as it goes merrily along. Once it's found out that, hey, maybe
everything can't survive on thirty-second ads alone, the Web video industry may be in for a shake out.